-What does "using a 90%/50% confidence level" mean?
-"Combs mentioned that every business has become a data/technology company." How does he evaluate the SaaS companies making this change possible? Example, how did he evaluate SNOW with it's enormous valuation and high people maintenance capex like the Columbia PHD and you warned of? Is it possible that SaaS companies are being undervalued due to the newness of the business model and investors using old valuation metrics to analyze these companies? (To a man with a hammer, every problem is a nail.)
-"He'd focus on Delta Reports" What are those? How do I find them?
Delta reports confused me as well, basically take two reports from the same company or two competitiors and analyze the changes/differences (delta) in them. Take special note of any changes like a new footnote or one with more details. You can do this with any PDF viewing software. Also, read Superforecasting. I hope this is helpful. Michael Burry also explained this in a tweet a long time ago. At a point, stop with books and just start reading 10Ks and Qs and proxies. In the same industry, compare 10Ks - it's an easy way to get the nuances quick
Fantastic stuff. Would like to point out: "Never just extrapolate the current environment state. Cyclicals always look cheap at the bottom and expensive at the top. Always invert." I think it's expensive at the bottom and cheap at the top (speaking of inverting!)
-What does "using a 90%/50% confidence level" mean?
-"Combs mentioned that every business has become a data/technology company." How does he evaluate the SaaS companies making this change possible? Example, how did he evaluate SNOW with it's enormous valuation and high people maintenance capex like the Columbia PHD and you warned of? Is it possible that SaaS companies are being undervalued due to the newness of the business model and investors using old valuation metrics to analyze these companies? (To a man with a hammer, every problem is a nail.)
-"He'd focus on Delta Reports" What are those? How do I find them?
Delta reports confused me as well, basically take two reports from the same company or two competitiors and analyze the changes/differences (delta) in them. Take special note of any changes like a new footnote or one with more details. You can do this with any PDF viewing software. Also, read Superforecasting. I hope this is helpful. Michael Burry also explained this in a tweet a long time ago. At a point, stop with books and just start reading 10Ks and Qs and proxies. In the same industry, compare 10Ks - it's an easy way to get the nuances quick
Last in, first out. Accounting methods of $1's allocation. First in, first out.
This article is amazingly well written, with tremendous insight. My first bookmark in substack.😁👏
Does anyone have a link to this live stream. Looking everywhere on YouTube can not find it
Brilliant Read... Todd Combs is a gem following his Guru's steps
Great article/interview. No wonder why Buffett wanted Combs on board. He is a smart, talented rational and ethical individual.
I couldn’t understand the LIFO/FIFO part while discussing working capital requirement. Can anyone explain it to me please ?
Agree with Smaug’s comment on working capital. Must be a typo on the second LIFO and that one should be FIFO, instead. Great to read. Thank you.
I think there is a typo: "Buffet is saying not to confuse that with a working capital need" it should be Buffett, not Buffet.
Unless you're in a cheap diner
Fantastic stuff. Would like to point out: "Never just extrapolate the current environment state. Cyclicals always look cheap at the bottom and expensive at the top. Always invert." I think it's expensive at the bottom and cheap at the top (speaking of inverting!)
What is Combs referring to when he said: the "reserves" seemed wrong and quite large with Amazon and Walmart? Thanks for sharing!
Thank you for sharing!
New substack, thanks for sharing, look forward to what you put out next.
Thanks for sharing. What are delta reports?
Change from year to year in statements
Very insightful! Thank you very much for sharing!
Thank you for sharing!